Previewing Sunday’s Chelsea vs Arsenal match

With the Premier League now in full swing, fans get an early October treat in the form of another London derby, this time between Chelsea and Arsenal. With both clubs genuine title contenders, each will want to dictate their intentions early on. But what can we expect on Sunday, and which club holds the edge? Here’s a look at some key factors.

Chelsea play at home, and that’s the first of several very bad signs for Arsenal. Any home side has a degree of advantage, but add into the mix heated rivalry and an overwhelming majority crowd, and Arsenal will start on the back foot. Delve into the recent record books and it’s worse still for the visitors.

Looking at the head-to-head results over time, Arsenal World shows that overall Chelsea have less of a historical home advantage (winning 35% of home matches compared to Arsenal’s impressive 46%). But, the west Londoners have been dominant at home in recent years. The last time the two sides met Stamford Bridge there was a 6-0 massacre by Mourinho’s men, you have to go back to October 2011 to find an Arsenal win at Chelsea.

Chelsea also have the distinct advantage of being the fresher side. As is the nature of European competition at the highest level, clubs have mid-week obligations. On Wednesday, Arsenal had to deal with a Champions League match against Galatasaray, Chelsea played on Tuesday. The Gunners may have played at home, and managed a relatively routine 4-1 victory, but they still have one less day to recover.

Unfortunately for Arsenal supporters, recent history shows that even just one extra days preparation for Chelsea can play a significant role. Bet Fair analyst Michael Lintorn has looked into the issue a bit deeper. He found that when two clubs active in Champions League play have met in the Premier League with one having an extra day’s rest, the more rested club has won every time.

Finally, moving away from historical indications and external factors, there’s the very simple reality that Chelsea is currently the far more intimidating side. And then there’s the addition of Diego Costa, who’s been in scorching hot form since the moment he put on the new uniform—and so has his team. In fact, The Independent details in its weekend Premier League preview that Chelsea have already netted seven more goals than any other team in the league, which is a pretty remarkable feat for seven weeks of action.

The preview also mentions that nearly half of the goals Arsenal conceded in 2013-14 Premier League play (17 of 41) came against the top three finishing sides. These are the simple facts: Arsenal can’t stop the top clubs and has done nothing to improve its defence, despite some great signings in attack. To compound matters, Chelsea are scoring goals in abundance.

Chelsea have a very clear edge this weekend. It won’t be another 6-0 drubbing: Arsenal will look to earn a statement win, and vengeance with it. However, a victory for the Gunners is unexpected. The best chance for Arsene Wenger’s side may in fact be to hope to simply outscore the Blues in a high-scoring affair.

Until Arsenal gets healthy and bolsters its back line, this looks like a more lopsided pairing than many might expect.